Economic Outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Growth1 2014

 

Growth1 forecast 2015

1

Real growth of gross domestic product, source: IHS Global Insight

2

Including about 50 countries defined by IHS Global Insight as emerging markets in line with the World Bank

As of October 2015

World

 

+2.7%

 

+2.6%

European Union

 

+1.4%

 

+1.9%

of which Germany

 

+1.6%

 

+1.7%

United States

 

+2.4%

 

+2.5%

Emerging markets2

 

+4.4%

 

+3.7%

The global economy is likely to grow in 2015 at roughly the same pace as in the previous year, supported by a generally expansionary monetary policy and the much lower oil price. Growth in the United States has proven robust over the course of the year and is now expected to come in at the prior-year level. We also expect the economic recovery in the European Union to continue, although significant risks still exist in the eurozone. The rate of expansion in the emerging countries is likely to slightly weaken again on average.

Economic Outlook for the Subgroups

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Growth1 2014

 

Growth1 forecast 2015

1

Bayer’s estimate, except pharmaceuticals. Source for pharmaceuticals market: IMS Health, IMS Market Prognosis. Copyright 2015. All rights reserved; currency-adjusted

2

Excluding diabetes care market

As of October 2015

HealthCare

 

 

 

 

Pharmaceuticals market

 

+9%

 

+9%

Consumer care market

 

+4%

 

+4%

Medical care market2

 

−1%

 

+1%

Animal health market

 

+5%

 

+5%

CropScience

 

 

 

 

Seed and crop protection market

 

+7%

 

≤ 0%

Covestro
(main customer industries)

 

 

 

 

Automotive

 

+3%

 

+2%

Construction

 

+4%

 

+4%

Electrical / electronics

 

+4%

 

+4%

Furniture

 

+4%

 

+4%

The pharmaceuticals market is likely to come in at the prior-year level in 2015. New products in particular continue to drive steady growth, especially in the United States. We expect demand to be stable in the emerging economies. Slightly increased growth rates are predicted for Japan and a number of the major European markets in 2015.

The global consumer care market is expected to grow in 2015 at the same pace as in the previous year. At Medical Care, the market for contrast agents and medical devices will probably expand slightly compared to a year earlier. The animal health market is anticipated to grow at about the same rate as in 2014.

We expect the global seed and crop protection market to weaken considerably in 2015 compared with previous years. We anticipate stagnation or a slight decline, mainly as a result of low prices for agricultural commodities and the difficult market environment in Latin America.

The positive growth momentum in the main customer industries of Covestro is continuing in 2015 due to the persisting stable global economic climate. The automotive industry is temporarily growing somewhat more slowly than in the previous year.